Mistra Carbon Exit´s fifth programme conference gave attendants important takeaways on subjects such as the development in north Sweden, transport, building and infrastructure. The changing policies in the EU and the US were other topics.

Here are twelve takeaways from the session Greening the vehicle supply chain – Industrial decarbonization in Northern Sweden. Below you will also find links to the presentations. The session was chaired by Fillip Johnsson, Chalmers University of Technology.

Filip Johnsson introduced this session talking about the benefits of a supply chain perspective.

He shared four takeaways;

• Cost and value creation of mitigation measures along the supply chain – from large cost increases to small price increases.

• The perspective requires emission targets in the entire supply chain which will promote sector cooperation and sector coupling. Flexibility measures in the electricity system are an essential for sector coupling.

• A supply chain perspective will prepare for consumption-based emission targets.

• A supply chain perspective will be beneficial for planning for increased supply security.

View over Skellefteå in northern Sweden.

Lisa Göransson, Chalmers University of Technology, discussed the opportunities and challenges in the Swedish electricity system. In a recent study, three possible scenarios were analyzed.

“The demand for electricity can be met in all three cases”, she said.

However, this requires a combination of measures to remove barriers and increase flexibility to meet different types of variations. Investments in storage – batteries, hydrogen and heat storage - will be needed in all three cases but in varying degrees depending on location and energy type.

Lisa Göransson’s three takeaways:

• Three possible Swedish electricity systems in 2045 have been investigated, one with focus on onshore wind power and import, one with 9 GW of nuclear power and one with 22 GW of offshore wind power.

• There is a varying electricity price in all three cases as a consequence of extensive wind power generation in northern Europe.

• The electricity demand can be met every hour in all three cases and there are many options for flexibility in the Swedish electricity system.

Alla Toktarova, Chalmers University of Technology, presented on the topic of industrial flexibility as part of the solution. Today, the production of steel, ammonia, cement, and plastics stands for 70 per cent of the EU’s industrial CO2 emissions.

Her takeaways are:

• Flexibility in the industry is likely to play an important role in energy system transition.

• The availability of low-cost electricity generation is the determining parameter for the geographical location of electrified industries with high operational flexibility and high hydrogen intensity.

• Industrial flexibility options provide the lowest cost for basic materials production but at the cost of the lowest capacity utilization rate, i.e., overcapacity.

Kajsa-Stina Benulic, Linköping University, informed us about an upcoming report that analyzes which policy changes can deliver the needed solutions for the expansion in Northern Sweden. The report is based on interviews with municipalities, public organizations, manufacturers and sourcing companies.

Work is still in progress so the conclusions will follow later.

Thomas Sterner, University of Gothenburg, has studied EU citizens’ preferences for climate change. The objective of the study is to investigate if the citizens are ready to let their country take the lead by cutting emissions more than other countries and how that is related to whether they believe other countries would follow a good example or if they think other countries would do nothing. Could other countries increase their emissions as a result?

“Those who think that other countries would certainly follow are more inclined to go ahead, those who think there will be no reaction would not like to be forerunners”, he said.

The results clearly show that the cost is very important. Support for being a forerunner declines as the cost increases.

Thomas Sterner gave two main takeaways:

• Sweden must adjust its carbon exit to be in line EU strategy Fit for 55.

• We should focus more on combinations of supply and demand side policies à la Bard Harstad. Colombia, Nigeria and Ecuador have all recently introduced policies reducing oil production and/or subsidies to the sector.